This approach is intriguing. Because whether it is compared with the growth rate of 9% of GDP last year, or compared with the target of economic growth of 8% to 9% this year, the rapid economic growth in the first quarter needs attention.
Need to pay attention to what?
First, the basic orientation of macroeconomic control policies is to maintain stability. 2006 was the first year of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". Therefore, "opening a good start and making a good start" has become the keynote of this year's macroeconomic policy. In addition, local governments have concentrated on reelection, and major projects have been arranged around the country in the first quarter of the year, which has enabled the growth rate of the economy to increase in the first quarter. Considering such a background, the conclusion is: Compared to last year's macro-control efforts, this year will not further increase the tightening, but will maintain the continuity and stability of macro-control policies, and at the same time, adjust them in a timely and appropriate manner.
Second, the macro-control policy refers to excess capacity. Resolving excess capacity will become a major challenge facing macro-control this year. In the quarterly economic operation press conference, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the structural adjustment targets of cement, coking and ferroalloy industries: by 2010, the cement industry is expected to produce 1.25 billion tons, and the cumulative elimination of outdated production capacity will be 250 million tons. The scale of production has increased from 1 to 400,000 tons, and the number of enterprises has been reduced to 3,500; the coking industry has used 3 to 5 years to completely eliminate soil coke and modified coke, and by the end of 2007, coke ovens whose coking chamber height is less than 4.3 meters have been eliminated. The coke production capacity of industry access conditions accounts for more than 80% of the total capacity. The coke production capacity of iron and steel enterprises accounts for more than 50% of the total production capacity. By 2010, the ferroalloy industry capacity will be controlled at about 17 million tons, which is 25% less than in 2005. Eliminating 5000 kVA of the following electric furnace and 100 cubic meters of iron alloy blast furnaces.
Moreover, in addition to coal, cement, aluminum, ferro-alloys, coke and other industries, the National Development and Reform Commission will gradually introduce guidance for other industries to accelerate structural adjustment.
This is a clear signal. In 2006, the central government put forward the goal of reducing energy consumption for the first time, and incorporated it into the macro-control system as an important economic indicator. As the first year of the "11th Five-Year Plan", we must achieve the goal of reducing energy consumption by 20% within five years. It is expected that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will decrease by about 4% in 2006. This means that new projects must comply with national industrial policies and market access standards, resolutely eliminate outdated production capacity with high consumption, heavy pollution, and low levels, and prevent excessive growth of investment in some industries and regions. Especially in the context of rising oil prices and high prices, there will undoubtedly be a negative impact on some high-oil-consuming industries and oil processing companies. Some experts predict that prices for electricity, water, oil, and natural gas will continue to be reformed this year. The upward adjustment of the prices of these products will increase the cost pressures of downstream industries.
Third, the focus of macro-control is to expand domestic consumer demand. Since the end of the last century, China has always had the problem of excessive investment growth, high investment rates, and high investment contribution to the society. The rising investment rate has made the contradiction between the basic economic structure of investment and consumption increasingly prominent. However, to resolve the contradiction between investment and consumption, we cannot simply reduce the amount of investment. Instead, we should expand domestic consumer demand as the focus of macroeconomic control.
This means: First, under the background of higher investment growth in the first quarter than in the same period of last year, the strengthening of investment in fixed assets should be strengthened. Second, it is necessary to strictly control land use in the first quarter when credit has already accounted for half of the target for annual lending. Credit and credit are two “gates.†Third, in the context of severe market oversupply, more attention should be paid to expanding consumer spending to create a favorable policy environment for expanding consumer demand. Fourth is to accelerate the upgrading and transformation of the industrial structure. R&D investment, use of advanced and applicable technologies to transform traditional industries, and enhance the ability of supply to meet demand.
In a word, when the signal of macro-control has emerged, it is very important to pay attention to the trend of macro-control.
The new round of macroeconomic regulation needs attention
Although China’s economy grew at a rate of 10.2% in the first quarter of this year, Zheng Jingping, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, continued: “This growth rate is basically normal, but only at the upper limit of the potential growth range.â€