What are the causes of the suspension of numerous joint ventures and cooperation projects?
Although heavy truck sales have experienced year-on-year declines due to a high base from the previous year, the sector has shown a relatively strong recovery over the past four months. The second quarter is typically the most critical period for heavy truck sales throughout the year. Much of the high-strength credit that was expected in the first quarter has now been released, and its impact on investment and production will play a key role in determining how much the heavy truck market recovers this year. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with a lower base compared to last year, a year-on-year growth rate is expected to be a natural outcome.
Since the start of this year, fixed asset investment has grown rapidly, but the recovery in heavy industry production remains limited. However, as prices for upstream industrial products rebound, the heavy industry sector is expected to see increased activity. A quarterly rebound following the economic bottoming out in the first quarter could also boost freight demand, helping to drive the recovery in truck sales. If we look at annual sales figures for March and April—typically the peak months—the decline this year may only be around 4% compared to last year. Moreover, if investment and production activities in the second quarter improve relative to the first, heavy truck sales could potentially reach the same level as the previous year.
Looking at the data on the volume of goods transported by trucks, major structural shifts in ownership have primarily involved an increase in the share of light trucks. This shift has mainly come from reductions in the number of China Cards and micro-cards, which have moved into the light truck segment. Meanwhile, the proportion of heavy trucks has not seen a significant rise. In recent years, the volume of freight has increased slightly, and while there’s no clear sign of excess inventory in the heavy truck market yet, the average transport distance has risen significantly. For long-haul transportation, moving more cargo in a single trip is the most cost-effective method, which in turn supports growing demand for heavy trucks.
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