December fiscal new manufacturing PMI is below the line

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In December 2015, China's manufacturing industry continued to contract in the contraction zone, and the downturn did not improve.

The financial new China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2015, which was announced today (January 4th), recorded 48.2 points, down 0.4% from November, and below the 50-point line for 10 consecutive months.

This trend is different from the manufacturing PMI announced by the National Bureau of Statistics. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7 in December 2015, up 0.1 percentage point from November.

From the breakdown of the data, there are differences between the two. In the new China Manufacturing PMI, the output index and new orders index are all in the contraction range, and the degree of contraction has increased. The new export order index also ended the previous consecutive months of recovery, and once again fell into the contraction range.

In the National Bureau of Statistics' manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, and new export order index all rebounded, and the production index and new order index are in the expansion range.

Despite the differences, both the Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing PMI showed that the manufacturing sector is still at a low point, and the employment index has continued to decline in the contraction range. The situation is not optimistic. He Fan, chief economist at Caixin think tank, said that the economy continues to face greater downward pressure. With the Fed entering a rate hike cycle and the turmoil in the global market or further aggravation, the government should pay attention to short-term external risks, implement pre-adjusted and fine-tuned macroeconomic policy portfolios, avoid economic downslides, and continue to promote supply-side reforms to release reform dividends as soon as possible. .

For the manufacturing sector, the biggest problem at present is that the industrial sector has already fallen into deflation, and overcapacity needs to be resolved. In the five major tasks for 2016 that were just concluded at the Central Economic Work Conference, “capacity reduction” was ranked first, and it was proposed to study and formulate a comprehensive supporting policy system in accordance with the principle of enterprise, government promotion, market guidance, and disposal according to law; To create conditions for the implementation of market-based bankruptcy proceedings, speed up the examination of bankruptcy liquidation cases, and implement fiscal and taxation support, disposal of non-performing assets, reemployment of unemployed personnel and life support, and special awards and other policies.

Judging from the statement, the central government has a firm determination to remove production capacity, but it may adopt a gradual strategy in operation and tend to merge and reorganize more. Recently, Wuhan Iron & Steel and other companies have reported news of layoffs, production cuts, etc., and capacity reduction has gradually begun. The advancement of capacity elimination will inevitably have a negative impact on short-term economic growth, and the gradual strategy will also determine that the manufacturing downturn is difficult to change in the short term. However, only when the production capacity is effective can the manufacturing industry really get out of the downturn. To achieve this goal, not only the market forces, but also the reforms of state-owned enterprises and the clarification of reforms in the competition and cooperation relations between the central government and local governments must be promoted.

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