Khmer price drives strong chemical fiber plate

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On the 24th, the chemical fiber segment rose strongly. The overall increase reached 1.61%, including Nanjing Chemical Fiber (600889, stocks) limit. He Yuexiang, an analyst of the Business Textiles Branch, told the Economic Information Daily that the reason for the collective strength of chemical fiber stocks was the transmission of high prices of cotton, crude oil and PT A. Japan’s seismic production capacity has not yet fully recovered, and the quarterly results of chemical fiber listed companies are significantly forecasted. The impact of multiple factors such as growth.

It is understood that in the past six months, due to the sharp reduction in the production of Indian cotton, international and domestic cotton prices have continued to rise and remain high. Domestic cotton prices rose from around 20,000 yuan/ton in September 2010 to the highest of 33,000 yuan/ton around the Spring Festival in 2011. Since March, the Chinese cotton price index, which represents the spot price of domestic cotton, has been maintained at more than 30,000.

He Yuexiang believes that under the transmission of high cotton prices and high oil prices, the prices of various chemical fiber products for cotton substitutes have steadily increased. From the fourth quarter of 2010, polyester, nylon, viscose, etc. have all experienced significant increases and are still at high levels.

Huang Junfei, manager of the Yangtze River Futures Research and Consulting Department, told the Economic Information Daily that when the cotton price reaches around 30,000 yuan, the replacement of chemical fiber will increase substantially. Although everyone is expanding production capacity, the new production capacity has not yet begun to supply the market, so the entire market is still in short supply, and the profits of chemical fiber companies are very high.

He Yuexiang believes that although the degree of prosperity of the chemical fiber industry is still continuing, because the chemical fiber industry is a typical cyclical industry, there are obvious differences in the industry's current long-term sustainability.

For the future trend of cotton prices, Huang Junfei believes that the current cotton market differentiation is obvious, and the fight between the short and long time factors is more intense. The price of cotton will maintain a high level of wide fluctuations before September, and the shortage of high-grade cotton will drive the price of cotton in the entire market higher, which may rise to 35,000 yuan, and for low-grade cotton, 30,000 yuan or more. It belongs to the high range.

Zhang Xiangjun, senior analyst of medium-term futures of Beijing, predicts that from the perspective of global scope, the possibility of future cotton expansion will be very high. The possibility that cotton prices will continue to rise after finishing at historically high levels is unlikely, unless crude oil prices hit a record high or There has been a new situation of serious excess global liquidity.

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