Domestic car prices in the first quarter

In the first quarter of this year, domestic automobile prices continued to decline last year. The prices of domestic cars and imported cars all decreased to varying degrees, but the decline slowed down compared to the same period of last year. A small number of cars and trucks fluctuate slightly, and the market formed mixed performance. The situation.

According to the monitoring results of 36 large and medium-sized cities, domestic car prices in the first quarter fell by 0.64% from the end of last year, a decrease of nearly one percentage point from the same period of last year. Compared with the same quarter last year, the price of domestic cars fell by 3.9%. The price of passenger cars continued to decline. The prices in January and March dropped by 1.07%, 0.36%, and 0.29%, respectively, which was 8.36% lower than the same period of last year. The price of passenger cars and trucks in commercial vehicles slightly changed. In the first quarter, the price of passenger cars dropped slightly by 0.26% from December of last year; the price of trucks increased by 0.32%. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the passenger car price decreased by 0.30%; the price of trucks remained basically unchanged, with the prices of light and medium trucks increasing by 1.99% and 0.55% from the end of last year, and the price of heavy goods vehicles decreasing by 0.16%. In addition, the price of imported cars in the first quarter decreased by 2.4% from the end of last year, a slight decrease from the same period of last year. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, prices fell by 2.5%, a decrease of 8.5% in the same quarter.

On the whole, domestic automobile prices have not dropped much since this year, which is lower than the drop in imported vehicle prices. The main reason is that the price of trucks remained stable in the first quarter, partially offsetting the impact of the decline in passenger car prices on the overall decline in domestic car prices. In terms of sub-categories, the prices of domestic cars and imported cars both fell in the first quarter, and prices of a few varieties rose slightly. Domestic car prices fell by 0.73% from the beginning of the year to March, which was 8.78% lower than the same period of last year. Among the monitored varieties, a few low-end economical cars were affected by environmental factors such as fuel economy and environmental protection. The prices rose slightly, with Alto 7081C, Sail SL, and Santana GLi prices rising 1.78%, 0.14%, and 0.32% respectively from the beginning of the year. The price of imported cars in March was 0.46% lower than that at the beginning of the year and 8.84% lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the price of the Mercedes-Benz S350 rose by 0.40% month-on-month, 0.14% higher than that at the beginning of the year, and the prices of other brands declined.

The main reason for the impact of domestic car price changes in the first quarter

The first is the expansion of production and sales margins, and the increase in inventory pressure is the main reason for the decline in automobile prices in the first quarter. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to February of this year, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 739,200 units and 680,500 units. The output increased by 0.96% year-on-year, and sales decreased by 6.94% year-on-year. The rate of production and sales fell to 92.6%, which is a decrease of about 7% from the previous year. With slight increase in overall supply, market demand fell again. In February, car sales fell by 13.08% and 26.26% year-on-month and year-on-year, respectively. The difference between production and sales continued to increase. The number of newly added inventory in the first two months exceeded 50,000 units. 7.4% of total production. Not only that, there are still about 500,000 vehicles in the market waiting to be digested by the backlog of inventory trucks last year. The contradiction between overcapacity is becoming increasingly prominent. Distributors continue to reduce car prices to ease inventory pressure and become the main feature of the first quarter of the automobile market.

Followed by the rise in fuel prices, the increase in vehicle costs is an important factor affecting the growth of auto demand and price decline. In the first quarter of this year, the increase in domestic refined oil prices led directly to the increase in the cost of vehicles and the decline in consumer demand. Demand has been gradually released since the second half of last year, and car sales have been declining. The rise in oil prices further weakened the demand for automobiles and increased the contradiction between oversupply and demand. This will inevitably lead to a drop in car prices.

The expectation of RMB interest rate increase has also played a role in driving down the price of automobiles. All kinds of signs indicate that the current appreciation of the renminbi and the pressure of raising interest rates have not yet been effectively alleviated, and the market is generally expected to raise interest rates for the renminbi. To this end, some consumers have temporarily postponed or abandoned loans to buy cars, which also to a certain extent, slowed down, reduced consumer demand for cars, indirectly promote the decline in car prices.

Affected by factors such as the continuous rise in prices of upstream production materials, the prices of a few species have risen slightly in the general decline in prices. Since the beginning of this year, as the prices of raw materials such as steel, plastics and rubber have continued to rise, the cost of automobile production has risen and profits have fallen. According to statistics, the cumulative profits of the automobile industry in February decreased by 61.5% year-on-year, of which vehicle profits fell by 78.4%, and nearly half of the companies suffered losses. Judging from past experience, if the price of ore rises by less than 20%, it can basically be digested by the upstream enterprises. This time, the price of iron ore has risen by 71.5%, which has greatly surpassed the domestic iron and steel production enterprises' ability to withstand the price increase. Conducted to downstream companies. Several major iron and steel companies of Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation have correspondingly increased their supply prices to automobile manufacturers. The pressure on the increase in the prices of trucks for large steel users in the industry has already appeared. The prices of some light and medium trucks have started to increase. Rose slightly. In particular, domestic fuel prices have been driven by rising international oil prices this year, which has led to rising demand for economical cars with small displacement and low fuel consumption. In addition, the price has also risen slightly.

Car price trend forecast later this year

It is expected that in the second quarter, the auto market will still be affected by factors such as rising inventories, intensified competition and weakened demand, and prices will continue to fall. However, it is not ruled out that individual varieties are affected by the price increase of raw materials, and the price may fluctuate in the short term.

At present, the above-mentioned several major factors that caused the decline in car prices in the first quarter still exist, and the price will be affected by the downward trend. Industry insiders predict that the frequency of new cars entering the market will be significantly accelerated in the second quarter, and the competition between new and old models will become more intense, which may cause a greater impact on the original price system. In addition, the increase in domestic fuel price expectations, as well as the increase in parking fees, insurance and other vehicle maintenance costs, and the slow progress of automobile tax and fee reform, will all become issues that can affect the growth of auto consumption.

The main factors driving the price increase of autos are, on the one hand, that the trend of rising prices of production materials is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. The increase in the price of raw materials such as steel and rubber will drive up the pressure of rising costs, and the hysteresis effect on auto manufacturers will likely emerge in the second quarter. On the other hand, the implementation of the new policy will help boost the price of automobiles. On April 1, the “Automobile Brand Sales Management Regulations” was formally implemented. In the long run, the new policy will help regulate the market order and purify the market environment. The elimination of a group of agency agencies with poor qualifications and lack of integrity will play a positive role in promoting the healthy development of the auto market and maintaining the stability of auto prices.

However, in the short term, the new policy will undoubtedly increase the access threshold for car dealers, increase the capital investment and operating costs of dealers, and increase the possibility of car prices rising. In addition, the Euro III emission standard for automobiles is expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, and the increase in related costs will also support the increase in automobile prices.

In the second quarter, car price cuts and price pressures coexist. The factors causing the decline in automobile prices will still play a leading role. The price increase factors may have a certain impact on the prices of some models, but the impact on the overall price changes will not be significant. The price reduction will remain the main trend in the first half of the year.