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Truck Orders: Ramping Down Signals Turning Point in 2025
After wrapping up ACT Research's Market Vitals seminar on the state of the trucking market on August 21-22, 2024, Brett Lankford from Fetch Freight and Tim Denoyer from ACT Research delved into the current dynamics of the Class 8 market. They discussed how private fleets have influenced out-of-cycle order volumes, examined the broader economic conditions, and speculated on what this all means for rate recovery and exiting the bottom of the truckload cycle.
To read their full discussion, scroll down further.
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### 1. Resilient Demand Meets Stagnant Freight
The freight sector faces numerous hurdles, yet demand remains surprisingly robust, largely fueled by strong consumer activity. However, the freight market itself continues to hover in limbo. One significant contributor to this stagnation is the rapid expansion of private fleets. These companies have invested heavily in their own transportation capabilities, shifting volume away from the spot market. The cost structures of private fleets, typically more favorable than those of for-hire operators, enable them to grow more aggressively.
Another factor muddling the market is the plummeting prices of used trucks. As the cost of acquiring used vehicles drops, owner-operators find it easier to re-enter the market. This influx adds to the overall capacity and complicates the supply-demand balance even further.
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### 2. Truck Orders: Anticipating 2025
When it comes to truck orders, the industry finds itself at a crossroads. Prices are being finalized, and the order books are poised to open for 2025. Yet, the prevailing mood among industry players remains cautious. Interestingly, this hesitation could benefit the spot market next year. A slowdown in production would help stabilize the market by curbing excess capacity.
On the equipment side, inventories are stacking up, and the pace of new orders is gradually slowing. Manufacturers are nearing a tipping point where they’ll have to scale back production. While this adjustment poses challenges for suppliers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), it could offer much-needed reprieve to freight rates. As we gather more insights from fleets, it’s evident that this production slowdown is imminent. This cyclical adjustment, though temporarily disruptive, lays the groundwork for a healthier and more balanced market in 2025.
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### 3. Emissions Regulations: An Ongoing Challenge
Emissions regulations have also started to resurface as a pressing issue. Although progress has been steady, it has been painfully slow. The industry braces itself for these regulations to take center stage once again in the freight cycle discourse.
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### 4. A Lengthy Correction and Market Rationalization
The for-hire segment of the freight market has endured an extended downturn. Nevertheless, as the market recalibrates, the fundamental principles of supply and demand persist. Excess capacity must be addressed, and this correction is vital to restoring equilibrium. As supply aligns with demand, carriers and service providers should anticipate some relief, paving the way for sustainable growth in the coming years.
In summary, the freight market navigates a difficult phase marked by stagnation and overcapacity. However, the industry’s adaptability, combined with strategic shifts in truck manufacturing and emissions policies, offers optimism for a recovery in 2025. Keep an eye on these developments as we continue tracking these crucial trends.
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Stay tuned for more updates as the freight landscape evolves!