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One of the limitations is that the traditional lighting industry is not economically significant in terms of manufacturing. After a certain scale, the marginal cost of production will not drop significantly, and the scale of management is not economically obvious. According to my observation, this border is between 150 and 500 million RMB. The output value of more than 500 million yuan can still have a marginal cost reduction, even if it is a methodically luminaire manufacturing enterprise. Including international brands such as Philips and OSRAM, if you look at their foundry chain, some factories in Eastern Europe and Southern Europe are for near-production, but even in Asian foundries, they are quite scattered, more than three scales. It is not entirely a consideration of supply chain security, and it is largely due to the uneconomic size of traditional lighting products.
Why can the above-mentioned enterprises achieve a scale of 2 to 4 billion? I think their main source of economies of scale is not just from manufacturing, but from economies of scale in brands and channels. Adequate sales can eliminate the indiscriminate and highly specialized branding and channel construction costs. . NVC quickly set off, many people do not understand, the manufacture of NVC is heavily dependent on the foundry, why can it be so fast so fast. This is the extraordinary place of Wu Changjiang. He lost a lot of money on advertisements and channels. After the sales volume is washed up, he looks back. In fact, there is not much advertising cost for each item amortization. If Wu Changjiang insisted on manufacturing thinking at the beginning, I am afraid that today, NVC is just a lighting shop with green signs on a former shop and a factory in Zhongshan Old Town.
Looking at the manufacturing industry in the era of LED lighting, from the perspective of the entire industry chain, upstream crystal growth, compound semiconductor growth, and component packaging are all dependent on high R&D investment and high fixed assets investment. The characteristics of such industries are scale. The economic benefits are very obvious. In theory, they are all economies of scale. Look at the semiconductor industry, the scale is almost equal to competitiveness, usually only the industry first to make money, the second is only barely making money, to the third and fourth are always waiting for the fate of consolidation. The lighting manufacturing industry in the era of LED lighting is inevitably semiconductorized. If automation is introduced in the light source and luminaire manufacturing, the future competitiveness will be more dependent on the scale of production. Under the dual-scale economic effects of brand and manufacturing, the industrial structure dominated by large enterprises will soon become oligopolistic.
Why is EMS?
Let me first talk about why it is ETI (Dehao Runda), why is U-type strategy?
When Dehao Runda didn't know how to cut into the LED field, the capital market was blindly sought after, and when it was enough to pay for tuition, the market still thought that Wang Donglei was flickering. It's like a child saying that he wants to lick his own glass, a bunch of people come over and watch the stone slingshot. Watching the child knock on his own glass and scream it.
When the last onlookers and the child found that there was only a glass of slag left after the excitement, they all panicked. The child also found himself wrong when he tried to sweep away the glass scum from the window, but he could no longer erase the impression of a bad boy. For Dehao Runda, I believe that the initial thoughts of a senior in the industry mean that the LED chip project can be done well. It depends on the original intention. If it is really for the cause, then the government subsidy is the icing on the cake. If it is for subsidies, then the subsidy is the tempting but not full of fat in the trap. As for the initial heart of Chairman Wang, I am afraid that only the world himself will know it, and only himself can prove it to the world. As a bystander and witness to the industry's changes, we are expecting to tell a successful cross-border case of success in many years, rather than a blind failure to transform investment.
Of course, the above episode will not be the reason why ETI is enough to become an oligarchy. ETI's advantage lies in the inclusion of NVC's best offline entry into the entire Dehao system, forming the ETI-NVC combination. Dehao's wide-ranging self-rescue operation in the downstream is precisely in line with Wu Changjiang's re-entry into NVC's vision. I can think of this chess game and implement it quickly. I am afraid that only Wang Donglei, the letter of deepening his bones to the smile curve makes him look more than a crowd. The people are more aware of the value of the three letters of NVC, and the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and the guilt of NVC provide an excellent opportunity. The smile curve combination is the U-type strategy of Dehao.
Why is this combination amazing? This is to be understood from the benefits of vertical integration. Intuitively, when the overall situation of China's LED lighting market is undecided in 2013-2015, who can grab market share, who is the future winner. But this involves the distribution of profits between different links in the industry chain and between the current and the future.
In 2013, IKEA quickly rose up in indoor LED replacement lamps. The two giants, Philips and OSRAM, became the most popular brands in Europe. From the beginning, IKEA sold LED light sources with zero gross profit. China's LED lighting market must also be a fierce killing in 2014. Companies in all links of the industrial chain will face the price competition with the upstream and downstream enterprises. However, if you want to win, only the upstream and downstream will join hands. Today Don't make money, don't make money tomorrow, make big money the day after tomorrow. With Ma Yun, it is said that today is cruel, tomorrow is more cruel, the day after tomorrow is very beautiful, but most people die tomorrow night, can not see the sun of the day after tomorrow.
The advantage of vertical integration companies lies in the upstream and downstream for the future, first to make profits, gain market share, and then discuss how to make money in the future. From the high-profile announcement of 1 billion orders by NVC and DeHao Runda at the Beijing New Product Launch Conference, the two companies apparently embarked on a non-return with low profits and strong market grabs.
Then why is Mulinsen, why is the X-type strategy?
Using WeChat to make red packets is not an Internet thinking. At most, it is the successful use of Internet events for brand marketing. Mulinsen is the Internet thinking of manufacturing. Many people do not understand how Mulinsen can make products sell so cheap, and there are more than 20 gross profit. The internal plant of Mulinsen is dispersed into dozens of independent cost centers. Each cost center is equivalent to an independent packaging factory. This internal competition has partially overcome the uneconomical scale of management. A number of internal packaging factories share the development cost, while purchasing concentrated purchase of key raw materials, which is sufficient to absorb a large amount of upstream production capacity, and has strong purchasing and bargaining power for the upstream. In the face of the large number of downstream customers and extremely scattered, Mulinsen has a strong sales bargaining power. When the customer Mulinsen is fully profitable, because the product has a strong price-performance ratio, the customer is even willing to prepay the package capacity, and tie the interests of the customer and Mulinsen more closely. Such a capacity to pay, even if it is a credible endorsement, a transparent balance sheet, stocks can be mortgaged listed companies are also far behind.
Do these customer names look strange? It’s the stranger, because the Mulinsen service officially these unnamed local enterprises, these companies have a few sales a few hundred a year, and the purchase of Mulinsen is also tens of millions of yuan a year, and Mulinsen has hundreds of Thousands of such customers. When we still think that Mulinsen is a local tyrant, Mulinsen has been a long-time friend with the real local tyrant. For these customers, Mulinsen can provide products that are cheaper than their own, and when Mulinsen takes on most of the equipment investment risks, why not cooperate with Mulinsen?
Many people now like to talk about Internet thinking, thinking that an e-commerce website is the Internet, using WeChat Weibo to move the Internet, and using WeChat to send a red envelope, it is worshipped as the godfather of Internet thinking. In fact, what is the Internet thinking that I understand? It is to gather the power of everyone to make things that are usually done by a single person, a single business, and you have to do it at a very low transaction cost. Mulinsen did exactly that. In a purely packaged factory, the value in the industrial chain was very limited. However, Mulinsen used the practice of the ant army to collect a large number of small and medium-sized suppliers and small and medium-sized customers who were very difficult to survive alone. The internal manufacturing system is also reduced to zero, that is, to maintain the scale advantage of the entire group, but without losing the flexibility of each production center. Mulinsen is the true practitioner of the Internet thinking in manufacturing.
If Dehao Runda is building an ecological chain, then Mu Linsen is building an ecological circle, and the ecological circle will not be easily defeated.
Mulinsen is at the middle of the intersection of the X-type ecosystem, connecting upstream and downstream product flow, cash flow, information flow, doing things that scare competitors. The other meaning of X is that it is unknown, because of its uncertainty. Since last year, Mulinsen, which has extended the industrial chain to the lighting field, is replicating its business model based on its advantages in the field of packaging. With its good enough concept, it has pushed a large number of affordable products to the vast terminal market in China. very scary.