Domestic calcium carbide prices are expected to decline further in the late period of market prices

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The domestic calcium carbide market has seen a significant price drop in recent weeks, with prices falling by 50 to 100 yuan per ton—representing a decline of approximately 4%. This downward trend is expected to continue in the coming months, as demand from downstream industries remains weak. The price decline initially started in North China and gradually spread to other regions. In Inner Mongolia, the price dropped by about 100 yuan, bringing the ex-factory price down to around 2,000 yuan per ton. In the northwest region, the price fell by roughly 80 yuan, with an ex-factory price of 2,050 yuan. North China saw a smaller decrease of about 50 yuan, with prices now hovering around 2,200 yuan. Meanwhile, the Northeast experienced a similar drop of 100 yuan, pushing the ex-factory price to approximately 2,350 yuan. In Central China, East China, and the Southwest, there was little change in prices so far. However, the overall decline in the domestic market is likely to eventually impact these regions as well. Several factors are driving this price slump. First, the PVC market, a major consumer of calcium carbide, has been struggling. Recent PVC prices have fallen to 6,300 yuan per ton—a 10% drop—and the downward trend shows no sign of stopping. Both weak domestic demand and declining international PVC prices have reduced the need for calcium carbide, contributing to lower prices. Second, improved power supply in China has led to a surge in calcium carbide production. Over the past two months, output growth has reached as high as 25%, creating excess supply in a market that is already experiencing weak demand. Third, manufacturers are facing increased inventory levels and sales pressure. As PVC producers have become less active in purchasing, and their ability to take delivery has been limited, a situation similar to the first half of the year has resurfaced, with some calcium carbide stocks becoming stuck in the supply chain. Overall, the combination of weak demand, rising supply, and inventory buildup is putting sustained downward pressure on calcium carbide prices. Market participants are closely watching how these trends will evolve in the coming weeks.

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